Group 2, $2 million UAE Derby, Meydan Racecourse, Dubai, 1 3/16 miles, Tapeta synthetic surface, March 29 (100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for win, 50 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth.) Toast of New York turned in a smooth winning performance at 11-1 odds on a relatively dead Tapeta surface, getting the 1 3/16 miles in a creditable 1:57.92. But even with this convincing 2 1/2-length victory over 6-1 shot Asmar, it is questionable whether he can pose a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3. Fact: No UAE Derby horse has ever come close to winning America’s most famous race. For one thing, strong form on synthetic racing surfaces rarely translates to strong form on dirt, no matter where the synthetic form has been established. There also is the small matter of shipping a relatively young, still-maturing 3-year-old about 7,500 miles to run against a much stronger field in Kentucky than he faced in Dubai. Beyond those realities, every Kentucky Derby field usually includes several battle-tested contenders with Grade 1 form on dirt tracks. Moreover, every Kentucky Derby horse inevitably must acclimate to the tension-filled scene that engulfs Churchill Downs during Derby Week. The circumstances can be quite daunting for a horse shipping in from a foreign land who also must spend his first few days in quarantine. In the case of Toast of New York, I thought his performance was quite strong. [bc_video_id:319771:]He stalked front-running longshot Safety Check with no wasted energy and took command with ease when jockey Jamie Spencer gave him his cue coming out of the final bend. The sleekly built grandson of Kingmambo simply left the rest of the field in his wake, finishing with energy to spare while acting as if the added one-sixteenth miles of the Kentucky Derby would be no problem down the road. [ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays] What I did not like was that the performance – his third win in a row – confirmed how much he really appreciated the switch from grass racing to a synthetic track in his second career start last summer. Since getting outrun in his debut on grass in England last Aug. 11, Toast of New York turned his form around 18 days later when second in a one-mile maiden test on the synthetic surface at Kempton. He then won his next two starts on the Wolverhampton synthetic surface by huge margins, including a 12-length score in a 1 1/16-mile maiden route in September. Having confirmed his preference for synthetic surfaces with his UAE Derby score, Toast of New York’s owner, Michael Buckley, and trainer, Jamie Osborne, will have to decide if they actually will enter the Kentucky Derby. They were both noncommittal after the race. Should they go for it, Toast of New York’s obvious athletic ability might overcome all the negative precedents. But legitimate doubts will follow the colt all the way to Churchill Downs. As for the rest of the field, there were two other horses who had been nominated to the American Triple Crown, and neither showed enough to warrant a trip to Louisville. Sir John Hawkins, stakes-placed in European group races on grass last summer, failed to show anything, finishing last in the UAE Derby. Giovanni Boldini, a winner of a listed stakes on a synthetic track in Ireland last October and a strong second in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita in November, was a major disappointment. Beginning slowly, he could only finish fourth here, beaten about four lengths after closing some ground. Trainer Aidan O’Brien might interpret the performance as worth giving the son of War Front a Derby ticket, but the 10 qualifying points he earned might not be enough, and there are more suitable targets for 3-year-olds on turf in Europe. Second-place finisher Asmar and third-place finisher Emirates Flyer also earned significant Derby qualifying points but are not nominated to the American spring classics.